入世后中国利率环境的变化及利率趋势

利率 ,作为资金或资本的“价格” ,与一国的储蓄投资、宏观经济调控紧密关联。随着中国市场经济不断完善发展 ,利率的价格调节功能对中国深化经济改革和优化经济发展日益重要。加入WTO后 ,中国经济的市场化、国际化程度将进一步加深 ,利率环境即决定和影响中国利率的诸多因素将发生变化。通过实证分析入世后中国利率环境的变化 ,在对影响利率各因素详尽分析的基础上给出入世后中国利率趋势 ,具有重要的现实意义。     

析我国外汇占款对冲策略

根据我国的经济运行情况,分析固定汇率、资本流动与货币政策自主的“三元困境”在我国的具体表现。指出在经常项目和资本项目持续顺差的情况下,货币政策与外汇储备增长的矛盾。说明为控制流通中的货币而被动进行的单向对冲操作的成本昂贵,并且是以牺牲货币政策自主为代价的,还易积蕴金融风险,酿致恶性后果。证实了外汇占款对冲策略的不可持久性,为此必须改革现行的固定汇率制度,并放松资本管制。     

引入人口结构和社会保障因素的中国储蓄率模型

在对国民储蓄率的影响因素进行分析后,对经典的生命周期模型进行了拓展,引入了人口结构和社会保障两因素,从而构建了一个新的生命周期模型。在此基础上,对我国的国民储蓄率进行实证研究后发现,我国的人口结构确实会对国民储蓄率产生较显著的影响,而社会保障水平却对其影响不显著。     

Optimal investment strategies in an international economy with stochastic interest rates

We investigate how investors should optimally choose to invest in a dynamically complete international market. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal investment strategy and for the wealth loss an investor suffers from not investing internationally. Theoretically, we show that the gain from international investment is due to the speculative investment only, and why it is important for an investor from a large economy to invest in a small economy. In a numerical example we compare the wealth losses investors from Denmark and the U.S. suffer due to home bias.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

F-F三因子资产定价模型的扩展及其实证研究

针对中国证券市场的特征,本文引入会计指标市盈率、技术指标换手率,对标准F-F三因子模型进行了不同层面的改进。实证结果表明,标准F-F三因子定价模型基本能解释中证100样本股相应组合的周回报率,但效果不是很好;换手率高低对组合收益率的解释能力并不优于标准模型,但换手率与市盈率同时进入模型,却能有效提高周收益率的解释,是一个基本适合中国股市的资产定价模型。     

基于贝塞尔曲线的中、美、日利率期限结构静态研究

利率期限结构曲线的静态拟合是指,使用不同类型的数学函数近似地描述整条利率期限结构曲线。当前最流行的静态拟合方法是利用B样条曲线来拟合利率曲线。然而,该方法往往受制于阶数的限制,而仅仅停留在3阶。本文通过利用B样条曲线的特殊形式——Bezier曲线拟合了中国、美国、日本国债利率的期限结构曲线,获得了一种可以升阶的拟合方法。同时,将复杂的曲线拟合计算,简化为对散点的聚类分析,取得了中国利率期限结构的模型。     

人民币升值带来的财富幻觉探讨

本文从我国现有的外汇管理制度和面临的特殊发展阶段及发展背景出发,指出人民币对外升值对内贬值将是我国现阶段和未来所面临的一种重要现象。人民币升值及其升值预期将带来我国外汇储备快速积累,在结售汇制度下发生货币倍增效应,给我国带来明显的财富效应;人民币对内贬值即通货膨胀扩大了我国GDP的规模和国际排名,也给我国带来了财富效应。本文指出人民币对外升值对内贬值带来的财富效应在一定程度上是一种财富幻觉,并对这种情况下的宏观经济政策提出了对策建议。